The Georgia crisis was precipitated by the rash gambling of Saakashvili. He knew that he could not beat the Russians and he probably gambled that the newly resurgent and more powerful Russia would retaliate in its normal heavy handed style, although this time they focused almost exclusively on Military targets, the only 'collateral' (using the same term Americans use when they bomb a kindergarten or hospital) damage (or at least what has been reported) being that pink block of flats that was the sole western war footage for about a week.
This gave him the opportunity to scream genocide, invasion, rape and get the immediate unconditional backing of the US (which was suspiciously quick in coming). It also has the effect of unifying the Georgian population behind him which happens in any war, you only have to look at the Argentinians rallying behind the Junta they had previously despised and the British rallying behind Thatcher, who was prior to the Falklands conflict, the least popular British PM since records began.
Who stands to gain? Saakashvili gains the support of the US, the Georgian people and possibly speedier NATO membership. The US gains another military foothold around Russia and more importantly can exert direct military control over another oil pipeline. Just as was the case in Afghanistan, Yugoslavia, Iraq and maybe soon the Sudan. That only leaves the oil fields in Iran, Venezuela and Russia, the last of which they cannot have, although they almost got them when Yeltsin was in power.
The US benefits in that it has a military presence in all the states necessary to control the supply of oil for the next 100 years (while it lasts). It can control or at least influence oil supplies to its major economic competitors, China, India even Europe should it stop its craven groveling to the US. It also gets to encircle both of its major potential military opponents China and Russia with radars, Anti Ballistic Missile systems and permanent military facilies enabling close monitoring of communications. It also provides another NATO base within striking distance of the Middle East, particularly Iran.
Funny how all the wars of the last decade and a half have involved America toppling the governments of countries in which they have subsequently built oil pipelines or who have oilfields.
The Russians are in a no win situation. The Georgians bombarded Tskhinvali killing 1400 civilians and 16 Russian soldiers there on a UN recognised peacekeeping mission. What they hope is that by keeping the territorial disputes in the forefront NATO members that are not in thrall to the Americans will take a more calculated look at Georgia and think that it would be insane to pitch NATO into the likely situation of direct military confrontation with Russia in a territory with active and bloody territorial disputes!
The Georgians and Americans seem to be operating in a normal manner too, using the old Chinese proverb that "A lie, if repeated a thousand times, becomes The Truth".
By the way, not only Stalin was a Georgian, but the man responsible for the Terror in the USSR, Lavrentiy Pavlovich Beria http://en.wikip...rentiy_Beria was also Georgian. They don't seem to have a very good 'democratic' credentials either
Saakashvili came to power in a coup which is what the so called "Rose Revolution" was. He did win a snap election after the event, but as Shevardnadze's government was not exactly popular a dog with a funny hat could have won that election, and prior to this bloody spat Saakashvili was not exactly universally popular in Georgia.
America is not 'protecting' its 'friends'. It is expanding its military and geopolitical influence. It wasn't protecting Georgians in Tskhinvali when the Georgian troops started their indiscriminate artillery bombardment of a civilian target - a war crime by the way.
You haven't read my piece, although you have needlessly quoted it in its entirety. I refer you to my previous comments for a plausible explanation of the current situation.
Just like northern ireland is british soverreign territory, thats worked out really well over the last 80 years hasn't it.
In the democratic countries it is inevitable that groups that are or perceive themselevs to be ethnically different will attempt to siengage from the imperialistic 'mothership'. It is those with their outdated imperialistic views that these ethnic groups should be held by the 'mothership' that lead to terrorism and ethnic violence.
If Britain had walked away from NI at anytime from WW2 onwards, i.e. decalred it a self governing protectorate or sovereign state, the lunatics in that grim waste land would have sorted themselves out or died trying (who would care?).
If the majority of South Ossetians wish, as they do, to region the russian mothership as opposed to remain with teh fledging georgian one, that is their democratic right, as it is for the Chechens to live russia. But, then few of former USSR states ae democratic and are personal fiefdoms of Yeltsins oligarchs.
It is right to allow ethic groups to have their wishes expressed, it is also righteous for those people to take affirmative action if those wishes are suppressed.
ILH as a comparator, why shouldn't the Basque country be released from Spainish imperialistic oppression?
PS economic sustainability is an irrelevant argument to allowing the creation of small ethnic states, if people want this they have to face the consequences of their decisions.
edited by: IrishJack, Aug 22, 2008 - 10:06 AM
Tiocfaidh ar La,
But I'm starting to think that it won't for us cornish, no unity, no leadership, but lots of factions and backbiting
The Bureaucracy needs to expand to meet the needs of the Bureaucracy
ILH - You still haven't read what I wrote. It is a disputed territory. For most of the last century both South Ossetia and Abkhazia were independent entities, these being the South Ossetian Autonomous Oblast and Abkhaz Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic (1931). Also :
Your analysis is weak and far too black and white. This is not a case of good American (and Georgian) white hat cowboys against bad Russian black hat cowboys. The Caucasus has never been a stable region, it is even more fractious than the Balkans.
Kosovo was sovereign Serbian territory. That was taken from Serbia by force by NATO. The Russians warned NATO that the recognition of Kosovo would open up a Pandora's box of secessionist activity, and so it has.
to fully understand how foreign affairs works in this world of ours, one must at all times be prepared to look at things from points of views other than your own. It's good advice all round, really.
by all means keep your view, but understand why all the other people involved feel the way they do, and don't just dismiss it.
I don't think that at all, I think that both sides have their motives, and neither are particularly good, I just think, in this instance, that Russia are slightly more in the right.
did you even read the links in tarans post? did you read taran's post at all?
exactly, the point is, is you can't take any military actions, or diplomatic actions on face value, there is always something behind it, america wouldn't support Georgia if they gained nothing.
Think of it, their are dictaters in power all round the world, however why is it that America only seems keen to install democracy in the Arab states? What about the sudan? other parts of Africa, North Korea? the evidence is right there staring you in the face.
how? since when? you throw the word sovereign around, however, we go back to the days of the russian empire and Georgia was Russian, under the USSR it was russian. the people their hold citizenship of Russia and passports, they did what they believed right by the people living there, but they too had their motives.
exactly, the point is, is you can't take any military actions, or diplomatic actions on face value, there is always something behind it, america wouldn't support Georgia if they gained nothing.
Think of it, their are dictaters in power all round the world, however why is it that America only seems keen to install democracy in the Arab states? What about the sudan? other parts of Africa, North Korea? the evidence is right there staring you in the face.
how? since when? you throw the word sovereign around, however, we go back to the days of the russian empire and Georgia was Russian, under the USSR it was russian. the people their hold citizenship of Russia and passports, they did what they believed right by the people living there, but they too had their motives. [/quote]
So we should just leave Georgia to be invaded by Russia, Georgia should be in NATO. Why should it not join NATO?
I am in no way condoning what russia did, but I certainly don't condone what Georgia did to the seperatists either. It's not just a case of one is bad and one is good here.
I am not saying that they shouldn't be in NATO but the only reason they want to join is if they decide like they have done to attack South Ossetia or any 1 alse and Russia decide to defend them like they did Georgia could turn round to NATO and ask for help which would end up in a long war with the west and Russia.
What does it mean to be English?
Being English is about driving in a German car to an Irish pub for a Belgian beer then travelling home grabbing an Indian curry or a Chinese on the way to sit on Swedish furniture and watch American soap shows on a Japane
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