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WWIII inevitable?

ilovehelston Posted: 29.08.2008, 20:54



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TaranILH - You have no idea what you are talking about do you.
You see the world through a pin hole with one eye whilst wearing blinkers.

The people who live in the territory that Georgia claims as its own do not want to be part of Georgia, what of their wishes? Those territories have only been part of sovereign (or should that be sovirgin?) Georgian territory for a year, in about 1990.

Prior to that they were territories in the Russian Empire, then an Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic and an Oblast as part of the Soviet Union and then as disputed territories since 1991 after the Georgians failed to incorporate them in the "civil" war of 1991. Not to forget the other autonomous area in the South called Ajaria, which the Georgians have managed to quell and incorporate into Georgia proper.

Georgia is not in NATO, The French and Germans didn't want them until their territorial disputes are sorted. If you don't understand why that is, put your Treaty of Lisbon reading head on and read the posts above. NATO cannot represent Georgia regardless of what Saakashvili wants, until their territorial disputes are settled.

Try to think of NATO as a club, it accepts who it wants into its gang, it is not open to the international public. Georgia's membership is only an issue because the Americans want to station troops and missiles there for their ABM system and to secure the oil pipelines, although this little spat may also have provided yet another benefit to the ruling party in America and Given McCain a boost in the polls.

This smells more and more like a cynical American ploy, manipulating a rash and volatile man like Saakashvili into doing things that will give them (the yanks) a strategic benefit.

American Gains:
It gives McCain a poll boost.
It tipped the balance for the Poles to sign up to the ABM system.
It might well bolster support for current pro-American government in the Ukraine, which has only a tenuous grip on power anyway and is internally riven with factional in-fighting.
It boosted internal support in Georgia for Saakashvili who originally came to power in a coup and who was facing serious internal opposition with riots in Tbilisi on 7th November http://www.brei...icle=1&lst=1

Russsian gains:
Temporarily delaying Gerogian NATO membership.

GEORGIA WAS THE AGGRESSOR, it bombed Tskhinvali without warning on the night of August 7th, timed to start just as the Olympic Games were kicking off, while the 'eyes of the world' were elsewhere.edited by: Taran, Aug 29, 2008 - 09:33 AM




But Russian troops are on Georgian soil. Russia is seeking to establlish its control over its neighbours.


Of course NATO is a club, so why should Georgia not be in it?
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Fulub-le-Breton Posted: 30.08.2008, 09:51

Fulub-le-Breton

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For all interested here is a map of the ethno-linguistic groups of the north and south caucuses.




Of course the answer, when it was still an option, would have been to create a federal soviet republic of Caucasian encompassing both the north and south caucuses. Each ethnie having its own state within the federation. For soviet policy makers however this probably seemed too risky. 1) for creating a large and powerful rival to Russias Hegemony in that region of the USSR and 2) Russias border would no longer be the magnificent Caucases mountain range a natural frontier to be envied.

The Cornish Democrat
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ilovehelston Posted: 30.08.2008, 15:22



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Fulub-le-BretonFor all interested here is a map of the ethno-linguistic groups of the north and south caucuses.




Of course the answer, when it was still an option, would have been to create a federal soviet republic of Caucasian encompassing both the north and south caucuses. Each ethnie having its own state within the federation. For soviet policy makers however this probably seemed too risky. 1) for creating a large and powerful rival to Russias Hegemony in that region of the USSR and 2) Russias border would no longer be the magnificent Caucases mountain range a natural frontier to be envied.


However, that would have kept Communism in place

Which is a discredited economic syste
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Fulub-le-Breton Posted: 30.08.2008, 17:12

Fulub-le-Breton

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QuoteHowever, that would have kept Communism in place

Which is a discredited economic syste


Some how I doubt it and then after the fall of the USSR the Caucasian republic could of evolved into something along Swiss lines.

BTW the USSR was not strictly speaking a communist system but rather state capitalist.

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ilovehelston Posted: 30.08.2008, 18:00



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Fulub-le-Breton
QuoteHowever, that would have kept Communism in place

Which is a discredited economic syste


Some how I doubt it and then after the fall of the USSR the Caucasian republic could of evolved into something along Swiss lines.

BTW the USSR was not strictly speaking a communist system but rather state capitalist.


Did not happen though
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Taran Posted: 30.08.2008, 20:19

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My god, its like reasoning with a nine year old.

Is it Georgian Soil? Tha Abkhazians and Ossetians don't think so. It was only Georgian (this Georgia) for about a year in 1990.

IT IS DISPUTED TERRITORY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If the Albanians in Kosovo, which was INDISPUTABLY Serbia, can have their territory, why do you deny the Abkhazians and Ossetians theirs?

Gerogia can't be in the cliub because not all the members want it yet! NATO membership is dependant only upon acceptance of the application. There has not been an acceptance yet. THAT is why they aren't in NATO.
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ilovehelston Posted: 30.08.2008, 21:21



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TaranMy god, its like reasoning with a nine year old.

Is it Georgian Soil? Tha Abkhazians and Ossetians don't think so. It was only Georgian (this Georgia) for about a year in 1990.

IT IS DISPUTED TERRITORY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If the Albanians in Kosovo, which was INDISPUTABLY Serbia, can have their territory, why do you deny the Abkhazians and Ossetians theirs?

Gerogia can't be in the cliub because not all the members want it yet! NATO membership is dependant only upon acceptance of the application. There has not been an acceptance yet. THAT is why they aren't in NATO.


Well, Georgia is a democratic country and took part in a referendum to be in NATO. That motion was passed. Therefore, i can see no conceivable reason why it should not be in NATO
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cornishrebel2 Posted: 31.08.2008, 03:18

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Are the Russians so Innocent now ilh

Russian troops accused of hampering refugees
Saturday, 30 August 2008 22:06
A Georgian official has claimed that Russian troops deep inside Georgian territory are stopping thousands of refugees from returning to their homes.

Russian troops were still manning checkpoints in Georgia and patrolling a Black Sea port even after Moscow pulled back much of the force it deployed to crush Georgia's attempt to take back two separatist provinces.

Moscow has since recognised South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states, drawing a storm of criticism from Western governments.

They say the Russian presence in Georgia's heartland amounts to a partial occupation.

The governor of Gori, a Georgian city occupied by Russian forces during the brief war over South Ossetia, said nearby Georgian villages were still occupied by Russian soldiers preventing residents from returning home.

'The Russians have checkpoints and we still cannot bring these people back home. The threat of paramilitary, irregulars, looting and robbing is still very high,' Governor Lado Vardzelashvili said.

Russia says it is within its rights under a French-brokered ceasefire to maintain peacekeepers in a buffer zone in Georgian territory bordering South Ossetia. In practice the zone covers some ethnic Georgian villages.

Human Rights Watch has called on Russia to investigate reports of burning and looting of Georgian villages by Ossetian militias.

European Union leaders will meet on Monday to formulate a response to Russia's actions in Georgia, a key energy transit route and NATO aspirant.


http://www.rte....georgia.html
ilh read this then read the links on the side you might learn something you neva know


What does it mean to be English?
Being English is about driving in a German car to an Irish pub for a Belgian beer then travelling home grabbing an Indian curry or a Chinese on the way to sit on Swedish furniture and watch American soap shows on a Japane
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ilovehelston Posted: 31.08.2008, 09:20



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I never said anything about the Russians, but it is disgusting what they are doing. Georgia is our friend and we must help
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Taran Posted: 31.08.2008, 17:05

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QuoteTherefore, i can see no conceivable reason why it should not be in NATO


FOR GODS SAKES! They cannot be in NATO because NATO countries will not currently let them join! Their NATO membership has NOTHING to do with Russia. And it has nothing to do with their referendum result!

Some more figures that show the referendum in its true light
2006 population 9,363,941,
26.2 % under 18 2,453,353

That leaves an adult population of 6,910,588

Referendum result
1,760,271 total votes cast (25% of adult population)
1,355,328 For
404,943 Against

So 19.61% of adult Georgians said they wanted to be in NATO.
They are not 'our friends'. As I keep saying we are not at school any more. They have a government that came to power in a coup, against the previous, unpopular government. They then won a snap election on the back of the overthrow of the previous Gov.
They were subsequently not that popular as they were shooting at their own people last November, in Tbilisi.

Also, under the previous, UN sanctioned, peacekeeping agreement that has not yet been overturned, the Rusians are allowed to patrol in a buffer zone in Gerogian territory along the South Ossetian and Abkhazian border.

References - do the maths yourself.
http://quickfac...s/13000.html
http://en.wikip...rendum,_2008
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Taran Posted: 31.08.2008, 19:47

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ILH, Dust off your Treaty reading head again. There are LOTs of words and very few picture in this link.

http://www.spie...4812,00.html

It might shed a few rays of light into the impenetrable darkness that rules your view of the world. Its from a German magazine if you don't recognize the name. Also Germany is the third most powerful NATO nation after the US and France.
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ilovehelston Posted: 31.08.2008, 20:18



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Taran
QuoteTherefore, i can see no conceivable reason why it should not be in NATO


FOR GODS SAKES! They cannot be in NATO because NATO countries will not currently let them join! Their NATO membership has NOTHING to do with Russia. And it has nothing to do with their referendum result!

Some more figures that show the referendum in its true light
2006 population 9,363,941,
26.2 % under 18 2,453,353

That leaves an adult population of 6,910,588

Referendum result
1,760,271 total votes cast (25% of adult population)
1,355,328 For
404,943 Against

So 19.61% of adult Georgians said they wanted to be in NATO.
They are not 'our friends'. As I keep saying we are not at school any more. They have a government that came to power in a coup, against the previous, unpopular government. They then won a snap election on the back of the overthrow of the previous Gov.
They were subsequently not that popular as they were shooting at their own people last November, in Tbilisi.

Also, under the previous, UN sanctioned, peacekeeping agreement that has not yet been overturned, the Rusians are allowed to patrol in a buffer zone in Gerogian territory along the South Ossetian and Abkhazian border.

References - do the maths yourself.
http://quickfac...s/13000.html
http://en.wikip...rendum,_2008



NATO is split as to whether Georgia should be in NATO. One faction wants them to join, the other is scared of provoking Russia

And also, The Russians have now broken that agreement and now have a 'buffer zone' around those republics

Why should Georgia NOT be in NATO?
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cornishrebel2 Posted: 31.08.2008, 23:47

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There all just looking for a fight with Russia

Brown urges EU to review Russian relations
Sunday, 31 August 2008 22:05

The English Prime Minister, Gordon Brown has said NATO and the European Union must reassess relations with Moscow to prevent further 'Russian aggression'.

Writing in the Observer ahead of tomorrow's summit of European leaders to discuss the crisis over South Ossetia, Mr Brown urged the EU to do a 'root and branch' review of relations with Russia.

His comments came amid fears Russia could cut oil and gas flows as a result of the dispute.

The prime minister accused the Kremlin of 'dangerous and unacceptable' behaviour, saying it was using energy resources as a 'policy tool'.

EU leaders meet in Brussels tomorrow to discuss the South Ossetia crisis, and Mr Brown said he had warned Russian president Dmitry Medvedev to expect a 'determined' response

http://www.rte..../browng.html

Why should Georgia be in NATO

What does it mean to be English?
Being English is about driving in a German car to an Irish pub for a Belgian beer then travelling home grabbing an Indian curry or a Chinese on the way to sit on Swedish furniture and watch American soap shows on a Japane
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cornishrebel2 Posted: 31.08.2008, 23:52

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Georgia are not going to be in NATO because NATO not want Georgia to be in it its that simple

why should Georgia be in NATO

What does it mean to be English?
Being English is about driving in a German car to an Irish pub for a Belgian beer then travelling home grabbing an Indian curry or a Chinese on the way to sit on Swedish furniture and watch American soap shows on a Japane
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Taran Posted: 01.09.2008, 08:43

Taran

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QuoteWhy should Georgia NOT be in NATO?


Read, damn you!

Gerogia CAN'T be in NATO until NATO accepts its membership.
Georgia CAN'T be in NATO because NATO hasn't yet accepted its membership[ application.

IF NATO accepts its membership, THEN it can be a member of NATO. Not until then!

If NATO accepts Georgian membership, it puts the alliance into the position of having to face a direct military confrontation with Russia. Not something that ANYBODY (including the US) wants. icon_rolleyes
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